May 4, 2021
This post was originally published in Take Back Our Republic by Executive Director John Pudner.
Saturday a Texas jungle primary assured Republicans of a Congressional win in a district won narrowly by President Trump (51% to 48%). This result makes an interesting case study for proponents of moving to a “Final 5” system to elect candidates.
Instant Runoffs
Assuming you never heard of Final 5, the system has two parts. To go out of order, the second part is an instant runoff, supported by both Take Back Our Republic and Take Back Action Fund for years. By allowing people to choose between the top candidates if their first choice does not make the cut, this solution guards against; 1) the potential of electing a candidate with 35 percent of the vote when 65 percent wanted any candidate EXCEPT that candidate; 2) a spoiler candidate being funded by supporters of one major party just to peel off votes from the other major party; or 3) requiring a traditional runoff to continue a campaign for another month or two after the first election.
Georgia recently passed House Bill 59 to allow military overseas to use instant runoff ballots as part of an omnibus bill, and 19 localities in Utah adopted a similar system after the Utah legislature passed House Bill 75 to make it easier to choose that option.
Jungle Primary
More recently, some members across the country suggested coupling instant runoffs with a “jungle” primary, the system that has elected many Republicans in Louisiana and Georgia and now guarantees a Republican Congressional member Saturday in Texas. For an explanation of how the two could be combined into a Final 5 system, see this RealClear Politics story two weeks ago that reference the support for the system by officials such as Cong. Mike Gallagher, R-WI.
At first glance, some Republican leaders might view opening up a primary as running contrary to the push to close Republican primaries in some states so only people who have been registered as a member of a party for at least a year can vote in that party’s primary. In my days of running partisan campaigns, I shared this concern about “cross-over” votes, that is Democrats voting in a Republican primary in order to pick a weaker Republican as the nominee. And to be fair, when working in my first political job for George Allen, R-VA, we all talked openly about how crossing over to vote for a weaker candidate in the Democratic primary helped elect Virginia’s first Republican Governor since Reconstruction.
However, the risk of cross-over votes in a partisan primary is not an issue if you hold a jungle primary. To give an example, let’s say that in a red state like Idaho, the minority Democrats were able to cross over in sufficient numbers to nominate a Republican who was so weak they might lose to the Democratic nominee picked in their primary, especially if Democratic funders also were able to get a Libertarian and a pro-life candidate on the same ballot. (If you are a Democrat use the example of Republicans electing a weaker Democrat and then also funding a Green Party and Socialist candidate to peel off votes.) In that case, the minority party could use cross-over voting and supporting spoiler candidates to split the Republican vote from a weaker GOP nominee and perhaps the Democrat wins 42% to 41% with other conservative candidates pulling the rest of the conservative vote.
A Final 5 proposal starting with a jungle primary and then using an instant runoff in the General Election, assures that the ultimate winner needs to be supported by 50%+1 to be elected. Good luck if you are an Idaho Democrat trying to elect a US Senator – in 2020 Paulette Jordan certainly could have made the runoff but would have no chance of improving her 33.2 percent to 50%. Likewise good luck to a Massachusetts Republican electing a US Senator through Final 5 with a majority of votes – personally I believe Geoff Diehl was a great candidate but he could not have increased his 36.2 percent to 50 percent.
While we would like to see the jungle primary result in more than two finalists for an instant runoff election, the Republican domination of the Texas jungle primary Saturday makes for an interesting case study when considering Final 5.